European Space Weather Week 2022

Conveners: Pietro Zucca (ASTRON - Nederlands institute for radio astronomy), Eoin Carley (Dias - Dublin Institute for advanced studies), Monica Laurenza (INAF- Istituto di Astrofisica e Planetologia Spaziali Area di Ricerca Roma Tor Vergata)

Abstract: Monitoring space weather from the ground is to date still the most reliable source of space weather monitoring. This typically means smaller latency in the data retrieval and a more robust reliability, especially for space-based instruments that might be vulnerable to the same space weather conditions they are monitoring. However, while a single space-based instrument may be able to monitor the Sun and the Sun-Earth environment continuously, ground based instruments suffer from having a limited view of the Sun due to the night time and the local weather conditions, or they are limited by the earth's magnetosphere, requiring instrumentation at different latitudes. Therefore, Space weather monitoring networks are key to ground-based monitoring to assure a 24h or full spectral/energy coverage or to guarantee observations due to bad weather conditions. In this session, we encourage contributions from existing networks of space weather ground-based monitoring, including radio instruments (solar monitoring, IPS, ionosphere), GIC monitoring (magnetometers, power grids), optical instruments and neutron monitors networks, as well as space weather studies and tools conducted/operated with ground-based instrument networks.

Conveners: Colin Forsyth (UCL Mullard Space Science Laboratory), Malcolm Dunlop (Rutherford Appleton Laboratory), Melanie Heil (ESA)

Abstract: The Sun-Earth system is hugely under-sampled. Earth’s magnetosphere, typically encompassing a volume of over a quadrillion cubic kilometres, is monitored by a handful of spacecraft at any given time. Advanced warning of the incoming solar wind is currently provided by a few spacecraft orbiting the Sun-Earth L1 point. Despite these limitations, we have built a plethora of empirical and physics-based models as well as human expertise for space weather forecasting. More observations will improve our understanding and ability to forecast space weather, through improvements to models and data assimilation, but what level of ‘multi-point’ is appropriate and how do we make best use of this information? Scientific multi-spacecraft missions such as Cluster, THEMIS, MMS, Swarm and STEREO have greatly enhanced our knowledge of the dynamics of the magnetosphere and the solar wind, especially when used together. However, detailed analysis and understanding of these data takes a lot of time and effort. How multi-point do we have to go to provide both the necessary databases for model development and the inputs to forecasting, what are the implications for orbital traffic, and how best do we make use of existing multi-point datasets and techniques in space weather?

Conveners: Stephan G. Heinemann (Max-Planck-Institut für Sonnensystemforschung, Göttingen, Germany), Eleanna Asvestari (University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland), Camilla Scolini (Institute for the Study of Earth, Oceans, and Space, University of New Hampshire, US)

Abstract: Interplanetary coronal mass ejections, interplanetary shocks, stream and co-rotating interaction regions (SIRs/CIRs) and high speed solar wind streams are the primary drivers of strong to minor geomagnetic activity and play a major role in shaping the heliospheric environment in which they propagate. Therefore, understanding the heliospheric solar wind, ambient magnetic field, and their solar sources are vital in validating and refining space weather forecasting efforts. The aim of this session is to address the characteristics of these flows, the heliospheric background solar wind structure in which they propagate with respect to their solar source regions through the means of observations and models. Newly launched missions including Parker Solar Probe (PSP) and Solar Orbiter (SolO), as well as, established missions such as the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) and the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatories (STEREOs) provide a multitude of information that may be used to validate, improve, and refine current knowledge in this field. We encourage submissions relating to solar wind sources both for slow and fast wind, solar wind acceleration/ejection, interplanetary coronal mass ejections and shocks, stream interaction, and the structure of the magnetic field and plasma topology at the source surface and in the inner heliosphere. We advocate for authors to present their work that utilizes observations and/or models with relation to space weather.

Conveners: Ciaran Beggan (British Geological Survey), Juliane Huebert (British Geological Survey), Aziza Bounhir (University of Marrakech)

Abstract: Large and rapid changes of the geomagnetic field can produce numerous effects on surface or near-surface technology and have potentially detrimental impacts on its users. These effects include, for example, induced geoelectric fields which lead to Geomagnetically Induced Currents (GICs) in grounded technology, effects on radio propagation for over-the-horizon communication and retardation of timing signals in GNSS systems leading to loss of proper functionality. Understanding how and why extreme geomagnetic fluctuations occur is vital for developing models and methodologies to predict their effects during space weather events. In this session, talks on measuring, modelling and predicting externally-driven ground geomagnetic activity are solicited. Research on the effects on ground-based technology such as GICs in power grid, pipelines and railways, as well as the impact on positioning, navigation and timing applications are welcome. In addition, presentations on the broader or unintended consequences of space weather effects on ground technology can signpost and explore future avenues of research.

Conveners: Judith de Patoul (Royal Observatory of Belgium, Belgium), Hebe Cremades (Uni. Mendoza and CONICET, Argentina), Barbara Perri (KU Leuven, Belgium)

Abstract: The Sun is our superstar, shaping the near-Earth space environment and driving our (space) climate and space weather. Flares, Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs), associated shock waves and Solar Energetic Particles (SEPs) are the main sources of major space weather disturbances at Earth and other planets. The strongest events originate from large, magnetically complex active regions. In addition, stealth CMEs and high-speed streams emanating from coronal holes can also unleash medium-sized storms. In this session, we invite contributions on all topics relating to the build-up, origin, triggering and early dynamics of solar eruptive events, that provide us with a better characterization, diagnostics and deeper physical understanding of the solar sources of space weather events, which is key to improve space weather predictions. This covers both observational and modelling approaches, as well as new techniques and studies on the conditions for extreme events.

Conveners: Camilla Scolini (University of New Hampshire, USA), Luciano Rodriguez (Royal Observatory of Belgium, Belgium), Sergio Dasso (Universidad de Buenos Aires, Argentina)

Abstract: Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and their interplanetary counterparts (ICMEs) are of key interest in the field of solar-terrestrial relations. They are among the largest and most energetic transients in the heliosphere, and are main drivers of the most intense geomagnetic storms. CMEs and ICMEs can generate shock waves, even very low in the solar corona, producing significant fluxes of solar energetic particles (SEPs). They are also important drivers of relativistic electron enhancements in the radiation belts surrounding the Earth. Solar flares associated with CME eruptions can in turn have important impacts (UV radiation, particles) on the Earth's atmosphere. There is thus a strong need for realistic data-driven simulations of CMEs/ICMEs and their associated shocks and particle environment using a variety of theoretical, physics-based and semi-empirical models. Additionally, models can be complemented with the use of data from novel missions such as Parker Solar Probe and Solar Orbiter, wide-field heliospheric observations such as those provided by the STEREO mission, and enhanced catalogues such as HELCATS. In this session, we invite observational, theoretical, and modelling contributions on ICME-related topics, including ICME propagation in the heliosphere, the interaction of ICMEs with Earth and/or other planets, the link between CMEs and ICMEs, the generation and transport of SEPs by CME-driven shocks, and the forecasting of ICME and SEP occurrence and characteristics.

Conveners: Vincent Maget (ONERA, France), Ingmar Sandberg (SPARC, Greece), Alexi Glover (ESA/ESOC, Germany)

Abstract: The prediction of Radiation Belts dynamics is a key element for the creation of reliable operation models. This field is currently very active in terms of on-going research and development efforts in the framework of Space Weather activities (fundings from National Agencies, EU’s Horizon 2020 programme and European Space Agency’s Space Safety Programme). Quality of Radiation Belts nowcast and forecast is of prime importance for satellite stakeholders and operators in order to ensure the survivability of their in-orbit systems. However, bridging domains to ensure specific needs and requirements of the End-Users can be met with current and future capabilities of Space Weather oriented tools and models continues to be challenging. In parallel, provision of accurate nowcasts and forecasts remain always challenging as it requires federating together members from the whole Sun-Earth connection scientific community, especially to quantify successfully the dynamical radiation environment along satellite orbits. The purpose of this session is to bring together scientists, operators and modelers that have been involved in recent and on-going European efforts, spanning from the definition of the current and the future End-Users requirements, to the developments conducted on all related critical topics. Highlights on nowcast/forecast framework design, validation and performance assessment, as well as on data and models used and/or expected to improve such forecast, are welcome.

Conveners: Lucilla Alfonsi (Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Italy), Yaqi Jin (University of Oslo, Norway), Eelco Doornbos (Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), The Netherlands)

Abstract: The session focuses on the state-of-the-art understanding of the complex mechanisms ruling the Magnetosphere-Ionosphere-Thermosphere (M-I-T) coupling and how it translates into space weather impacts. Such an understanding is fundamental for the development of effective countermeasures against disruption, failure and deterioration of vulnerable technologies, such as GNSS critical applications, HF/VHF/UHF radio communications and LEO satellites operations. In order to forecast, warn, and mitigate adverse space weather effects, a better understanding of the M-I-T coupling plays a key role. It is essential to improve the prediction of: geomagnetic storm-time behaviour of the occurrence of spread-F, polar cap patches and scintillation phenomena that can degrade navigation and communication systems, thermospheric density variability affecting satellite drag and the enhancement of field-aligned currents, just to mention a few examples. Another crucial aspect of M-I-T coupling is the interhemispheric symmetric/asymmetric response to variable drivers that, if properly predicted, could support regional space weather modelling. Contributed papers may address (but are not limited to) recent developments in modelling and forecasting, monitoring methodologies, data analysis, measurement campaigns and international initiatives related to M-I-T coupling and associated threats on systems, at regional and global scale.

Conveners: Audrey Schillings (Department of Physics, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden), Liisa Juusola (Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland), Chigomezyo Ngwira (Orion Space Solutions, Louisville, USA)

Abstract: Solar activity influences the terrestrial environment and can cause geomagnetic activity that induce electric fields in the conducting ground. The geoelectric field on Earth’s surface, in turn, drives geomagnetically induced currents (GIC) in conductor networks. Several reports have highlighted the vulnerability of our high-tech society to GIC and the need for a better understanding of space weather events that drive them. We invite poster and oral contributions on recent advances in the understanding the causes and consequences of GIC from a scientific point of view. The session will be dedicated to space weather events and geomagnetic activity related to GIC in ground-based technological systems and forecasts using various models. The session will especially focus on: - Rapid geomagnetic variations associated with solar wind-magnetospheric-ionospheric processes during quiet and disturbed times (SuperMAG, INTERMAGNET, IMAGE, and others) - Response of earth’s magnetic field to space weather events (SWARM, CHAMP, ePOP and others) - GIC due to extreme space weather events - Nowcasting/forecasting of space weather events We particularly encourage contributions related on rapid magnetic field variations associated to substorm currents, Kelvin-Helmholtz instabilities, Omega bands and others.

Conveners: Elena Popova (Centro de Investigación de Astronomía, Universidad Bernardo O’Higgins, Chile), Robertus Erdelyi (University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK), Marianna Korsos (Aberystwyth University, Aberystwyth, UK), Giovanni Lapenta (KU Leuven, Belgium)

Abstract: Artificial intelligence is taking paramount importance in a wide range of applications from engineering to space physics. A particularly interesting area is big data and its associated applications. In the last few years, machine learning techniques have proven capable of forecasting space weather events with a much higher accuracy with respect to long-used traditional empirical and physics-based models.The direction of space weather uses big data, as an example, that are hard to handle with traditional methodology. It is hard to imagine the future of space weather without machine learning because more consideration is being given to the issues of reliability, uncertainty, and trustworthiness of machine learning models. O)n the practical sifde, the forecasts of the various physical processes are especially timely given the recent technology developments and the expansion of our technosphere. This session encourages submissions addressing the latest advances in the application of artificial intelligence and their application to space weather. Contributions are welcome from all areas of space weather that focus on the application of artificial intelligence, including forecasting various processes and analyzing satellite or ground-based data.

Conveners: Ioannis Daglis (University of Athens), Stefaan Poedts (KU Leuven), Yuri Shprits (GFZ Potsdam)

Abstract: In 2019 the European Commission selected three projects for funding under the activity "Horizon-2020 Space: Secure and safe space environment": EUHFORIA 2.0, PAGER and SafeSpace. All three projects focus on ways to improve our space weather forecasting capabilities, covering distinct yet overlapping areas of space weather physics and space weather effects. The session encourages submissions from researchers and advisors working in the framework of these projects, as well as from those working on similar modelling and frameworks.

Conveners: Ilya Usoskin (University of Oulu, Finland), Silvia Dalla (University of Central Lancashire, UK), Florian Mekhaldi (University of Lund, Sweden)

Abstract: Space Weather studies and tools are largely based on the recent decades of direct and indirect observations of solar/geomagnetic effects, where the strength of the events was not representative of the entire possible range. On the other hand, we know from Space Climate that extreme events, several orders of magnitude stronger than everything we have observed directly during the last 80 years, can take place on the Sun on the secular time scale. This includes extreme solar flares and particle storms, as well as enormous geomagnetic disturbances. The consequences of such extreme events can be dramatic for the modern technological society but this cannot be quantified based upon the existing direct experience. Extreme events are studied by indirect proxy datasets but these measurements are quite robust because of the enormous strength of the events. Here we propose to discuss current knowledge of extreme solar events and their application to modern Space Weather problems, viz. in the context of their parameters, physical origin and consequences. In this session, results related to extremely strong rare events will be presented. This will form new observational constraints and theoretical bounds for the practical Space Weather studies.

Conveners: Carine Briand (LESIA, Observatoire de Paris-PSL), Mark Clilverd (British Antarctic Survey), Peter Gallagher (Dublin Institute for Advanced Studies)

Abstract: Solar eruptions are the source of significant disturbances of the ionosphere through the rapid increase in energetic radiation, particularly the X-ray flux. Radio wave propagation effects and increases in D- and E-region electron density are the main perturbations generated by these events. From the space weather point of view, HF blackouts over extended regions are the major risks linked to solar eruptions. Being too high for balloons and too low for in situ measurements with spacecraft, the lower ionospheric D-layer, a key region of absorption of the HF emission, is mostly surveyed by VLF measurements. Networks of VLF receivers have been deployed by various groups, including the polar regions (AARDDVARK), Latin and South America (LATNET & SAVNET) or spread over the world (SUPERSID & AWESOME). VLF measurements have also proved to be a powerful tool to detect transients linked to thunderstorm regions (Elves, Sprites, and Terrestrial Gamma-ray Flashes). The interest in such events was recently raised for civil aviation since they can be the source of intense ionizing radiations. This session aims to present several aspects of recent achievements for solar flares or thunderstorm luminous events, from instrumentation to observations, and also modelling. We will also discuss the buildup of an international organization to better share and analyze the VLF data during specific space weather events.

Conveners: Siegfried Gonzi (UK Met Office), Vic Pizzo (SWPC Boulder, USA), Eric Adamson (SWPC Boulder, USA)

Abstract: Ensemble techniques in terrestrial weather forecasting have come a long way and it is fair to say that modern weather forecasts are unthinkable without the aid of ensembles. At the risk of not reinventing the wheel the space weather community should learn from the terrestrial weather community. But it is less clear how much of that already existing knowledge can easily be applied to space weather forecasting. The community lacks a clear strategy of how to manage this problem. We are faced with a possible practical limitation of ensemble techniques in space weather forecasting due to a lack of observations in the heliosphere. The idea underpinning ensemble techniques is to draw uncertainties from possible prior states that show some semblance to a real state which is often derived from observations. Ensembles can help with gaining insights into how model and observation uncertainties unfold and manifest themselves in the forecasts. This will benefit model developers and forecasters alike. This is the first ever ESWW session that deals with ensemble methods and user needs. We invite contributions from colleagues working in all fields relating to space weather forecasting, modelling and observations. This includes Sun to Earth, radiation belt, magnetosphere modelling and forecasting techniques. We also invite colleagues to submit presentations that demonstrate that ensemble methods would only add little value to their work.

Conveners: Yihua Zheng (NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, USA), Ian Mann (University of Alberta, Canada), Natalia Yu Ganushkina (Finnish Meteorological Institute, Finland/University OF Michigan, USA)

Abstract: Near-Earth space is a region consisting of diverse populations of particles spanning a broad energy range from a few eV to 100s MeVs that could lead to different space weather impacts on space hardware and/or human. This session aims to engage the community in seeking innovative ways to improve modeling of the near-Earth space radiation and plasma environment for the benefit of space weather operations and applications, which includes identifying knowledge gaps and research and measurement needs to help advance science understanding of this important region with complex dynamics. The session welcomes submissions on topics including (but not limited to): - how AI/machine learning, data assimilation, ensemble modeling, open science, and other innovative methods can be utilized - how we can continuously carry out user-oriented systematic model validations (together with uncertainty quantification) to ensure the healthy cycle of space weather models and to ready them for space weather purposes. This session is in line with COSPAR/ISWAT G3 Cluster activities and objectives (https://www.iswat-cospar.org/g3).

Conveners: Alex Hands (University of Surrey, UK), Erwin De Donder (Royal Belgian Institute for Space Aeronomy, Belgium), Marcin Latocha (Seibersdorf Labor GmbH, Germany)

Abstract: There are many diverse threats to aviation from space weather. Interruptions to high frequency (HF) communications, loss of SATCOM links and degradation of GPS navigation performance are associated respectively with various space weather phenomena such as X-ray flares, geomagnetic storms and polar cap absorption (PCA) of solar energetic particles. In addition, solar energetic particle events (SEPEs) can lead to elevated dose rate to passengers and crew, as well as single event effects (SEE) in aircraft electronics (avionics). As technology advances (with more complex and sensitive electronic equipment, electric engines, …) in the aviation industry, new susceptibilities may show up caused by Space Weather (SWx). This creates new challenges for the space weather community to improve the modelling of the space weather modified environment and induced effects at flight altitude. The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) is attempting to address these concerns via four dedicated global space weather centers for the distribution of advisory information and alerts. The ICAO space weather manual outlines thresholds for these alerts based on moderate (MOD) and severe (SEV) levels of space weather intensity. While at European level, the development of ESA’s Space Weather Service Network with pre-operational services continues within the Space Safety (S2P) SWx programme. We invite contributions on any topic relating to space weather effects on aviation particularly those that describe models and measurements that are relevant to the ICAO advisory thresholds. We encourage discussion on the suitability of the ICAO thresholds for space weather advisories and the scope for new measurement campaigns to enable comparisons between empirical data and model predictions during future events. We also invite the scientific community & service providers to present newly developed assets that may help in further improving the reliability/accuracy of space weather services and tools in support of the aviation community.

Conveners: Juliane Huebert (British Geological Survey, UK), Joana Alves Ribeiro (University of Coimbra, Portugal), Ciaran Beggan (British Geological Survey, UK)

Abstract: Large geoelectric fields are induced by variations of the geomagnetic field over a range of periods from seconds to minutes particularly during severe space weather events. Accurate representation of the geoelectric field is vital for correctly estimating Geomagnetically Induced Currents (GICs) in grounded technologies. The geoelectric field can be measured directly using magnetotelluric methods for example or inferred using large-scale conductivity properties of the subsurface. At present, there is a general lack of high-quality data and models specifically for space weather applications. In this session, methods for measuring and modelling the geoelectric field are examined, including new 1D/3D models of conductivity, data collection methodology or resources. We also solicit talks on improvements in real-time modelling of the geoelectric field over wide areas and new techniques for using space weather forecasts to estimate extreme geoelectric values.